Scottish Labour is facing an unprecedented squeeze on its 56 year dominance over Scotland’s politics. And with less than 95 days till polling day, they only now seem aware of it
Alex Massie hit the proverbial nail on the head with his latest article for the spectator. His core thrust was simple, Scottish Labour are heading for an epic downfall fit for the Greek plays. Not even Sophocles could have come up with a situation this dramatic.
Dramatic not merely in the spectator’s interest sense. I’m not a Labourite (obviously), but I am a unionist. I voted no last September, and I believe in transnational cooperation (why I’m pro-EU membership). Thus I’m aware of the far reaching, and dramatic consequences for the union if the last unionist party in Scotland with any electoral clout collapses.
Mr Massie, rather amusingly, summed up the level of shock being felt across the Scots journalistic establishment, & Scot Lab establishments. He said “I wouldn’t dare to be so uncouth as to suggest Labour are fucked but they’re hardly unfucked either.”
The implication is obvious. For Scotland, for our economy, and our expectations for the future. If Scots Lab are this far from being “unfucked”; we should all be concerned. And just check out the Ashcroft polling data. Caveats aside (like extrapolating a Scotland wide swing from Lab to SNP by focusing on constituencies most heavily voting yes…has problems), the results were nonetheless alarming.
Labour in Glasgow are on average facing a swing against them of 25%. On these kinds of numbers, they’d only hold Glasgow North East. And if Labour can’t secure Glasgow, it spells an end to the Scottish political climate. Even the one where we fought the Indyref.
I’ll boil it down: if GE2015 witnesses the collapse of SLAB to a clutch of seats it confirms the ultimate legacy of the indyref. That we don’t have four party politics any-more. We have two hostile armed camps, Unionist and separatist.
This prospect should be enough to alarm any unionist, or even any equivocal ‘no’ voter.